Ever since the rise of Mike Huckabee in the Iowa primaries began, I have been reading about his positions on the issues to try and understand his appeal. I quickly thought that Huckabee would be the ideal candidate vs. almost any Dem in the general election, even leaving a comment on one blog that the Dems would be “looking at a rout of Reaganesque proportions". Then began the blogs advising Dems that “we wanted to run against Reagan in 1980 and look what we got”. Since then I’ve found myself questioning my original idea that Huckabee would be easy to beat in a general. I’ve read the blogs and comments and rethought my position several times. But I’ve finally come to believe my original thought was correct. I’m going to highlight some specific statements, positions and actions of Mike Huckabee, and how they would hurt him in a general. Then I’ll have some fun with electoral politics.
Let’s briefly look at why Reagan won. Reagan helped create the current GOP juggernaut by melding religious conservatives (who previously had been somewhat apolitical) by appealing to their core social issues; big business and the wealthy by advocating tax cuts and other financial incentives that would mostly benefit those groups; and neocons by advocating the re-arming of Americas’ armed forces and facing down the ‘Evil Empire’. Then of course there was his personal “likability”. I’m a lifelong Democrat and I disagreed with almost all of Reagan’s’ policies, but even I found him likeable. In addition to uniting the beginnings of future Republican victories, Reagan drew many independents and so-called ‘Reagan Democrats’ to insure his 1980 election and 1984 reelection. Charm and affability were Reagan hallmarks, the same attributes many in the press say belong to Huckabee. And so we Dems don’t want to face Huckabee in the general because he will ‘charm’ Americans.
But Huckabee would have a lot of charming to do in order to win. Reagan, even though he had been governor of California and had run for the presidency previously, did not have a great deal of specific policy initiatives or statements that could be used to attack his credibility, Americans were willing to give Reagan the benefit of the doubt. I doubt most Americans will be so giving toward Huckabee once the Democratic nominee starts highlighting the following.
In 1998, Huckabee’s then 17 year old son was under investigation of possibly torturing and then hanging a dog. Huckabee intervened to stymie the investigation.
Who he loses: animal lovers.
“Darwinism is not an established scientific fact”
Who he loses: scientists.
Huckabee initially was reasonable about illegal immigration/undocumented workers. Of course when he realized that a ‘Christian’ attitude in this area wouldn’t work with primary voters, he immediately changed his position to: “provide all illegal immigrants a 120 day window...to leave the country” even though he said earlier that forcing the removal of all illegal immigrants would cause an economic collapse.
Who he loses: recent immigrants who are now citizens, families of same.
“I feel homosexuality is an aberrant, unnatural and sinful lifestyle”
Who he loses: Log Cabin Republicans.
“If the federal government is truly serious about doing something with the AIDS virus, we need to take steps that would isolate the carriers of this plague.”
Who he loses: people with compassion, people with serious illness or disability in the family, medical professionals.
“I’m the only guy on stage with a theology degree” As later admitted by his aide Joe Carter “Governor Huckabee doesn’t have a theology degree. He only spent a year in seminary.”
Who he loses: people who don’t believe in lying.
Asked about his sudden surge in the presidential polls, Huckabee said “There is only one explanation for it, and it’s not a human one. It’s the same power that helped a little boy with two fishes and five loaves feed a crowd of 5,000 people and that’s the only way our campaign could be doing what it’s doing”. Of course, he later back-tracked and said he was talking about people praying for his candidacy.
Who he loses: people who are religious but not fanatical about it.
Upon leaving office, Huckabee ordered the destruction of the hard drives of 83 desktop and four server systems in the Governor’s office.
Who he loses: believers in open government, conspiracy theorists (OK, that one is a bit of a snark).
As governor, Huckabee paroled 1033 convicted criminals before parole was due, many because he was advised that the convicted had ‘found Jesus’ while incarcerated.
Who he loses: anyone who isn’t naïve.
He led the drive to parole Wayne Dumond, a convicted rapist who went on to rape and murder a Missouri woman. Dumond had 25 years left on his sentence when Huckabee inserted himself into the decision of the parole board to release Dumond early. Dumond was suspected of a second rape/murder but died in prison before that case could be fully investigated.
Who he loses: believers in law and order, families who have suffered because of criminal activity, police, sheriffs, state patrol officers.
Crosses picket line to appear on Leno, after saying he supports unions.
Who he loses: union members who wouldn’t have voted Democratic in the first place.
Expresses ignorance about the Iran NIE; expresses ignorance about Pakistan’s borders. Later, a Huckabee spokesman said the governor has “no foreign policy credentials”.
Who he loses: I don’t know, anybody with two brain cells to rub together?
Says:”...the American experiment in liberty seems to be disintegrating before our very eyes. Abortion, environmentalism, AIDs, pornography, drug abuse and homosexual activism have fragmented and polarized our communities. It is now difficult to keep track of the vast array of publicly endorsed and institutionally supported aberrations.”
Who he loses: environmentalists.
Says: ...”a wife is to submit herself graciously to the servant leadership of her husband”. Wants a federal ban on abortion, even though he had previously said it was a states’ rights issues. Wants to ban birth control pills.
Who he loses: every Democratic woman, the vast majority of independent woman, 20-30% of Republican women who, while they are pro-life, also believe their reproductive choices are not the business of the government.
Please don’t think that I believe that every voter in every category I’ve mentioned will turn from Huckabee if he is the Republican nominee, or that I believe that all of the issue/quotes/actions mentioned above will not also gain him votes (for instance, the Log Cabin Republicans are delusional) and his pardoning of criminals who ‘found Jesus’ will be seen by some as ‘turning the other cheek’.
Now let’s have some brief fun with electoral politics. For the sake of argument, let’s say the general comes down to Huckabee/Giuliani (I believe America’s Playa is the only one craven and power mad enough to run on a Huckabee ticket) and Obama/Biden (no, I’m not endorsing Obama. I’m still undecided).
I give the following states to Huckabee: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Utah, and Wyoming (37 votes). The following states are probable for Huckabee: Arizona, South Carolina, South Dakota and North Carolina (36 votes). The following states I consider toss-ups: Florida, Nebraska, Nevada, North Dakota and Texas (74 votes). Even if Huckabee carries every state above, he totals 147 electoral votes. Leaving 364 for the Democratic ticket.
Ok, I’ll admit I was wrong about a 'victory of Reaganesque proportions". Reagan won 489 votes in 1980 and 525 in 1984. But this victory would put a Democrat well above Nixon in 1968 (301) and on a par with Clinton in 1992 (370) and 1996 (379).
I am no longer of two minds about Huckabee in the general election. I wish Huckabee a a bumpy but successful road to November.